NBU: February 2024 Inflation Turns Out Lower Than Forecast Amid Increased Food Supply

Consumer Inflation Rate Decreases to 4.3% in February 2024

Actual consumer inflation in February 2024 amounted to 4.3%, lower than the forecasted trajectory of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). The decrease in inflation was attributed to increased supply of certain food products and secondary effects from significant harvests last year, according to RBC-Ukraine citing the NBU’s Macro-Financial and Monetary Review for April 2024.

Inflation Rates Continue to Decline in March

In March, the slowdown in inflation rates persisted, with annual inflation reaching approximately 3.5% as per NBU estimates. State statistics reveal that such low inflation levels were last recorded in October 2020 at 2.6%.

Factors Affecting Prices

The NBU attributes the decrease in inflation to increased food supply due to warmer weather and effects from previous harvests, although scarce supply of certain quality products and imported goods contributed to higher prices. Non-food items saw a decline in prices, especially for clothing and footwear, while services experienced slower cost growth primarily due to reduced pressure from food raw material and energy costs.

February saw an increase in fuel prices due to logistical challenges and rising world oil prices. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products became more expensive at a slower rate, driven by competition from the shadow supply and reduced raw material and energy costs.

Moratorium on Utility Tariff Increases

The moratorium on raising utility tariffs also helped restrain administrative inflation, providing some relief to consumers in the current economic climate.